soL English

According to research and forecast reports issued recently by the World Bank and a number of big European Banks, what will the prolonged state of the crisis look like began to show itself up roughly. The unemployment rate for the USA is estimated to reach its peak level in the second half of 2010 and for the EU same is estimated to happen by the end of 2010. For the former, estimated peak point is 11 percent and for the latter it’s around 12 percent. In other words, throughout the next two and a half years unemployment in European continent will be worse than it is today. Moreover, unlike other regions, economic contraction is expected to continue for EU throughout 2010.

According to same analysis, worst period with respect to economic growth and industrial production will be overcome until September this year. It won’t be possible for the interest rates to rise until 2012, afterwards there is possibility for the inflation to get out of control. This is a picture valid for the world in general. But, at different points, different trade blocks have some unique positions. Unfortunately, EU is one of the blocks that is in the worst state.

Bad loans of the eastern Europe smelling to high heaven threatens the center countries (especially Sweden, Austria, the Netherlands and Italy.) In the following 12 months, economic contraction is expected to continue or remain at zero growth at the best. The loans opened by the European banking system to private sector keep on shrinking rapidly. On the other hand, the last and the worst thing is according to the surveys more than 50 percent of the European households believe that the prices will fall or remain the same throughout next year. This means depression. Prices will be low, sales will be low and unemployment will be high. Snow will continue to precipitate on Turkey’s traditional market.

Additionally, fixed capital investments in Europe are estimated to shrink more in the years 2009 and 2010. Besides, this shrinkage will range around more than 10 percent in 2009.

These surveys again manifest that the hypothesis of “Turkey is in a better state than many countries struck by the crisis” is an urban legend. Turkey is better only from some of the eastern European- Baltic countries, and also Mexico, Japan and Thailand. It’s this or that degree worse than the rest.

Therefore, doesn’t Turkey have the right to turn his head away from Europe? Yes, it has. What could be the harm of model of partnering in relative dynamism outside the three advanced capitalist centers (the USA, the EU and Japan.) No, but on the condition of replying the following question: Does Turkey have a political and economic capacity to set itself free from the regional initiatives of the EU-the USA which it designed its fate collectively until today?

Well, instead of sharing the fate of the EU and the USA which will suffer from stagflation and unemployment in the next three years, won’t it be possible to run after commercial alliances with China estimated to grow by 8 percent, with Russia estimated to grow by 5 percent, with India estimated to grow by 7.5 percent or with Eastern Asian countries estimated to grow by 4 percent? Doesn’t AKP force this way? The government party continues to argue that it took up some positions in search of this, found new markets to our capitalists and thanks to this, the crisis slightly touched us, doesn’t it?

First of all, we are living in a period when it’s proved that the backyard of Americanism can’t be left with these mathematical calculations and that Americanism is in strong hands.

Isn’t that clear? Is there anybody who couldn’t yet see that behind the “turn towards the east” attempts of AKP there is only “the strategic alliance”, in other words acting as gendarme? Is there anybody who couldn’t yet understand, couldn’t yet grasp that the relations between Pro-Americans is decided not at the borders, but in Washington?

Let’s say, we somehow saw death and agreed to live without the USA. Let’s say we said good bye and turned towards the east. What are we going to buy and sell with the Chinese who owns the biggest shipyards, construction companies, giant glass, metal, petrochemical plants of the world and who can make investments not only with cheap labor but with high technology; with the Indians who has a service sector almost improved as the EU? No way without planning, without producing science and technology, no way with a reactionary and market oriented education and with shallow politicians, in short, no way with AKP.

We’re in an era when even the national willpowers that implement the lamest policies to keep and realize its existence can keep better the human life in the regions where they dominate. Nevertheless, in such a world order speaking of independence comes incoherent to me. Therefore, socialism is so much current.